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These will be the cities most affected by overtourism in 2030

Will our cities be prepared for the tourism of the future?

Are our cities prepared for the rise of tourism? © Getty Images

According to the UN, the world will have 11,500 million inhabitants in 80 years, if population growth continues as it is today. So it is natural that tourism, which accounts for 10.4% of world GDP, continues to grow in the coming years.

He 'overtourism', that is, the problems that may arise due to the massive arrival of people and overcrowding is the main challenge that cities around the world will face, some with more or less luck.

How will it be in 2030? Will the cities be prepared for the mass arrival of tourists? Which cities will be more prepared and which less? We know it thanks to a new study.

'Destination 2030. Global cities' readiness for tourism growth' It is the research carried out by JLL and WTTC in 50 countries and with more than 75 indicators with the objective of helping these cities to implement improvements and face the challenges of future growth. “This report is not intended to give a prescriptive roadmap. Each destination is unique, with its own specificities and needs to adapt to its circumstances, ”they warn.

For this they have analyzed -according to growth forecast factors between 2017 and 2027- to the cities in four large blocks such as the concentration of visitor activity, leisure, an urban preparedness index and an evaluation of the commitment related to tourism policies.

Aspects such as the activities carried out by visitors, accommodation, connectivity, if there is availability of labor, what is the atmosphere of the cities -if there is stability or not-, if there are sustainable tourism growth plans or not, if they have an economic development plan, etc.

A study by the World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC) and Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL). © WTTC & JLL

The study divided the cities into 5 categories and these are some of the data it provides. 'Dawning developers' it points to cities that have an emerging tourism infrastructure, a gradual growth of tourism and fewer visitors but with the potential to grow as Manila, Moscow and Riyadh.

'Emerging performers' It refers to those that have an emerging tourism infrastructure, a growing tourist boost, but nevertheless they do not have a good infrastructure to deal with this tourism as Bogota, Delhi, Istanbul Y Mexico City. The case of Istanbul is one of the most significant in terms of emerging cities as it is about to open one of the largest airports in the world.

While 'Balanced Dynamics'It encompasses cities that are often business centers with less leisure participation, and therefore, have an established tourism infrastructure and growth potential such as Singapore, Chicago, Munich and Tokyo.

The study points to Munich as an example of a good balance of tourism. On the one hand because it is positioning itself as a city for tourists with high purchasing value, interested in culture and traveling out of season.

50 cities and 75 indicators. © WTTC & JLL


'Mature Performers' they are those cities that have a solid dynamics of pleasure and / or business trips and a good infrastructure to welcome tourists, but there is a risk of future tensions related to the volume of visitors as could happen in Madrid, New York, Berlin, London and Sydney.

In the case of NY notes as a positive point several marketing campaigns carried out, such as 'True New York City' focused on publicizing other parts of the city beyond the center to tourists. Y 'See your city' which aims to bring other points of the city to the neighbors.

By last, 'Managing Momentum' It refers to destinations that are identified as pleasure destinations, but nevertheless, they cannot guarantee that the volume of travelers coincides with the urban requirements required to manage them. Examples include Amsterdam, Barcelona and Prague.

In this sense, the main problem of these cities will be the accommodation and overcrowding of visitors in the main tourist areas. And points out how a possible good marketing strategy generate more interest for business travelers, because they generate more income in the cities, do not concentrate on the tourist attraction areas and travel out of season.

New York, one of the best prepared to receive tourists of the future. © Getty Images

Video: SESSION 2 at the 7th UNWTO Global Summit on Urban Tourism (February 2020).

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